TÜRKİYE'DE ELEKTRİK ÜRETİMİNDE YENİLENEBİLİR ENERJİ KAYNAKLARININ KULLANIMININ TEKNOLOJİK, POLİTİK VE ÇEVRESEL KISITLAMALAR İLE ANALİZİ
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The CO2 emissions associated with electricity generation has been increasing in parallel to the increase in electricty demand in Turkey. Various targets are identified to reduce the emissions and strategies are developed for cost effective investment planning. Even though the cost of electricity generation is evaluated only by taking into account the investment and operation costs, the assessments made without the external costs, which are the costs of damage imposed on environment and people, do not reflect the real cost of electricity generation. The objective of this study is to determine the real cost of electricity generation by including external costs on the basis of scenarios based on "if" or "to do" electricity generation in Turkey and to show the effect of these scenarios on the price of electricity developed within the scope of the strategies set to achieve national CO2 emission reduction targets. In this study, the scenarios are basically divided into two groups as Business As Usual Scenarios and Ideal Scenarios. Within the scope of Business As Usual Scenarios, it is assumed that all electricity generation power plants will operate in the range of minimum and maximum capacity factors and none of the plants will not be closed during the forecast period. Business As Usual Scenarios are consisted of Business As Usual Scenario, External Cost Included Business As Usual Scenario, Low Demand Scenario and Use of Domestic Sources Scenario. Within the scope of the Ideal Scenarios, it is assumed that some of the existing power plants will be shut down and new power plants will be installed based on the requirements of the set targets. Ideal Scenarios are consisted of Ideal Scenario and External Cost Incuded Ideal Scenario. In this study, 2015 is considered as the base year and electricity generation optimization is carried out from 2015 to 2035 using the Answer-TIMES modeling program on the basis of scenarios developed. Data on electricity demand projections, CO2 reduction targets, and the existing power plant are obtained from the sources published by the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Data on Turkey's resource potential and natural gas import agreements are input into the model as the upper limit for realistic investment plans. For external cost values, data from the CASES project is used in terms of $/kWh external cost for each electricity generation technology. When the scenario results are evaluated, it is seen that the Low Demand Scenario developed with the assumption of reducing the estimated demand is the most cost effective scenario and has the lowest level of total CO2 emission. Comparing its results with those of Business As Usual Scenario, the net present value of the total cost is 8% less in the Low Demand Scenario, which is developed by lowering the estimated demand by 15%. The evaluation of the results of Use of Domestic Sources Scenario presents that the total CO2 emission level of this scenario is considerably higher than the other scenarios since the use of lignite plants is not balanced with solar and wind energy. By including the external costs to the scenarios, it is seen that the actual cost of generation is estimated to be about 30% higher than the apparent cost. The cost difference of approximately 30% is due to the damage caused to human health and environment by the electricity generation. Within this context, it is important to plan and limit new investments according to targets and real cost of electricity to maintain sustainability. This can be achieved by accomplishing the CO2 emission targets while at the same time increasing domestic resource utilization which includies lignite.