Yizek: Varis Kişilerin Tespiti ve Analizi
Çınar, Muhammet Serkan
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Social Network Analysis (SNA) is widely used in revealing meaningful information from the relationship networks in different domains. Crime organizations are also a social network which composed of members and relations between members. SNA used by security forces in the whole world in order to uncover structure of terrorist organizations and destabilization of them. Today considering that terror or cocaine organizations are not active in a region and a country and that they are accompanied by different criminal organizations in the context of different interest relations all over the world. The disclosing mathematical model of criminal networks via analyzing structure of criminal organizations, the identification and analysis of the key role players (Leaders, Reporters and Fundraisers etc.) who are interacting with the different groups and the people who is close to them provide the authorities of the countries affected by criminal activies to make effective decisions in their struggle with criminal organizations. One of the most important goals of the metrics used in the SNA is to identify the individuals who are the key players in the network. For the long-term future of all organizations exhibiting social network structures, the identification of those who can replace the key player in the organization is one of the most important issues in terms of the continuity and effectiveness of the organization. While the identification of successors which may cause the organization to be more effective is great importance for the efficiency and development of the organization, the identification of the succesors which may cause organizations such as criminal organizations to be more ineffective, is equally important. The thesis is summarized in four main titles. In this context; i) structural analysis of network structures of some real terrorist and cocaine criminal organizations in terms of SNA metrics and their differences from non-criminal social networks; ii) the creation of a new model for the identification of criminal organizations through the use of machine learning and statistical methods; iii) the creation of a model that includes different strategies for identifying the successors of key players and successors’ new connections to others within the criminal organizations; and iv) the analysis of changes in similarities of criminal networks to new networks which will be formed according to different strategies as a result of the removal of members from criminal organizations and detection of the member that will cause the most damage to the network. Since the military guides, which played a very important role in the state and the army of ancient Turks, have been given the name of YIZEK because of their superior military service and administrative experience, the thesis and a SNA metric created in this thesis was called YIZEK which will guide the decision-making systems of the security forces to neutralize criminal organizations.