Makro Ekonomik Faktörlerin Türkiye Motorlu Taşıtlar Pazarına Etkileri

Abstract

The automotive industry has a strategic importance in terms of production, exports, imports, employment and tax revenues. When the structure of Türkiye automotive market is analysed, it is seen that imported vehicles have an important place in the market. Within the scope of tax regulations, special consumption tax (SCT) comes to the fore. In this thesis, the effects of macroeconomic indicators such as changes made in the SCT rate or base (sale value of the vehicle), rate of change in the industrial production index (SUEDO), price, consumer expectations, unemployment, vehicle loan interest rates (nominal value) and fuel on the Turkish motor vehicle market are analysed. A regression analysis is performed with multiple time series. In the study, a data set containing monthly data for the period between 2008 and 2021 is constructed and cointegration relations between the variables in the model are estimated using the ARDL method. The results of the analyses show that there is a positive relationship between vehicle sales and consumer expectations and a negative relationship between vehicle sales and vehicle loan interest rates. Other findings reveal that SCT, SUEDO, motor vehicle prices and unemployment rate do not have a statistically significant effect on vehicle sales in the long term.