The Analysis of 2008 Global Economic Crisis : The Case of Turkish Manufacturing Industry

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of the 2008 global economic crisis on Turkish manufacturing industry. Economic impacts of crisis have long been investigated; however, this study differentiates by using a new perspective on the issue. Micro-econometric differences in differences method is used in junction with forecasting method. In the study, importance of the manufacturing industry is revealed for Turkish economy by analyzing all sectors operating in the economy. This study also aims to predict what would have happened in the Turkish economy, if the 2008 crisis did not exist and whether the manufacturing industry showed early signals or not. Results indicate that profit levels of Turkish manufacturing sector are affected from the 2008 global economic crisis at two digit sub-sectors level and showed early signals for the crisis. Further, it was found that profit values of manufacturing sector bounced back and even actual profits exceeded the estimated profits in the later years.